The situation in Iran is horrifying. Andrew Sullivan is doing a great job of covering it and you can find links to the various twitterers who are keeping the world abreast of what's going on. Some of the photo sets are heartbreaking.
I get the feeling it's only going to get worse in the next few days.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Friday, May 29, 2009
Stanley Cup Finals Preview
First Line A
Guerin-Crosby-Kunitz vs. Cleary-Zetterberg-Franzen
Crosby had three points at even strength against the Zetterberg line in last year's finals. Zetterberg is kind of fantastic at shutting down opposing centermen, but Crosby is playing better this year than he was last year and his wingers are pretty solid. Detroit, on the other hand has Franzen who is a beast in the playoffs and Cleary who's playing as well as he's played in his career right now.
Edge: I think this is basically a push. Maybe a slight edge to Detroit because of Franzen but it's really close.
First Line B
Fedotenko-Malkin-Satan/Talbot vs. Holmstrom-Datsyuk-Hossa
Datsyuk's struggled scoring this postseason, as has both wingers on this line. However he's still been excellent defensively. Holmstrom though is a liability. If Hossa plays like he did in game four and game five, this matchup is close, but Malkin has been playing real well and Babcock will probably play the slightly less good defense pairing against these guys instead of Crosby.
Edge: Penguins, but it's close and if Datsyuk/Hossa play like their capable of, this is also a push.
Third Line
Kennedy-Staal-Cooke vs. Hudler-Filppula-Samuelsson
This has at times been Detroit's best line in these playoffs. Filppula is playing out of his mind, Samuelsson is playing better than he usually does with fewer turnovers, and Hudler is being his usual self with little ice time. These are easily the two best third line centers in the league. Cooke's a douche, Kennedy has played pretty well from what I've seen, but the Wings' third line has been incredible thus far.
Edge: Detroit
Fourth Line
Talbot/Satan-whichever center is double shifting(right, Burtletoy?)- Adams vs. Abdelkader-Helm-Maltby (Draper for Maltby or Abdelkader if he's healthy, with additional injuries move Helm up a line and add Leino)
Neither of these lines are going to get a ton of ice time. I have a huge mancrush on Darren Helm, Draper's great at defensive zone faceoffs, but I don't want these guys on the ice against the big lines of the Pens. I'm sure Bylsma will try to get that matchup when he has last change. The Pens fourth line basically doesn't concern me.
Edge: Shouldn't matter, Detroit's is a little better but besides Helm and Talbot if he gets elevated to Malkin's line, these people won't get 10 minutes of ice time.
Top Defense Pairing
Scuderi and Gill vs. Lidstrom and Rafalski
Oh God, ouch. It's the second best defenseman of all time and a borderline all star in his own right against a couple solid blue liners, but nothing spectacular.
BIG Edge: Detroit
Second Defense Pairing
Gonchar and Orpik vs. Kronwall and Stuart
This is closer, in my mind. Orpik has played really well I've thought this post season. Gonchar is a great offensive defenseman and almost as good in his own end. Stuart has been playing out of his mind, especially in the two games Lidstrom has missed. Kronwall is doing Kronwall things. Decent number of assists, big hits, getting in the heads of opposing forwards.
Edge: Detroit, but it's closer than I thought originally.
Third Pairing + Spare parts
Eaton and Letang (and Boucher) vs. Ericsson and Lebda
Ericsson is great. Started looking a little shaky sometimes against Kane Toews, but considering he's brand new in the league as of basically three months ago, he's been fantastic. I look forward to his career. Lebda played really really well as the fourth defenseman last night, assisted on both goals. was solid in playing something like 25 minutes. Letang has been pretty good in what I've seen. Eaton I haven't noticed so he's not being totally terrible, and I only seem to hear Boucher's name called on the second power play unit.
Edge: Detroit, though this is my most biased pick.
Goaltending
Fleury vs. Osgood
So Fleury actually reminds me a little bit of a young Osgood. Can steal a game, makes a lot of spectacular saves, but allows some baffling goals sometimes. As I recall from last year's Finals, he has trouble with rebounds, which is bad times against Detroit. But he's been really *really* good in the playoffs. Similarly, Osgood has been absolutely fantastic. Great save percentage, GAA, record, etc.
Edge: This is a push, both goalies are playing really really well.
Pittsburgh Power Plays
Wings penalty killing has been terrible, the Pens power play is terrifying. This is not good.
BIG Edge: Pittsburgh
Detroit Power Plays
Pittsburgh's is surprisingly good, though the stats are inflated a bit I think because of Carolina's ineptness (which was all playoffs long). Detroit's power play is very, very good. This is basically even.
Edge: Push, maybe Detroit if they get on a roll or the numbers are over inflated from Carolina (I doubt it).
Coaching
Babcock vs. Bylsma: Bylsma played for Babcock, so while he's been brilliant, I think we can go with Babcock based on experience at this point.
Edge: Detroit
Miscellaneous keys:
Faceoffs! If Detroit dominates the faceoff dot like they did last year, this won't take long. Granted, I think the last time I checked the stats, Crosby and Malkin were significantly improved from their regular seasons last year. This is something to watch out for.
Discipline/Officiating: If these games become penalty fests, the Pens power play will for sure pick Detroit apart. Detroit's might also, but it's less certain.
Turnovers at the blue lines: Any of these and these two teams will make you pay. Detroit is usually pretty poised so I'm not too worried about them just giving away goals like Carolina and Washington in particular did.
And obviously, Detroit's injury situation: If Lidstrom in particularly can't go, Crosby is going to have a fun series. And that would be bad. Datsyuk being able to go would be a big help in slowing down Malkin. Draper being healthy would help the penalty kill as his ability to cheat and get away with it on faceoffs is invaluable. Ericsson should be fine, definitely by game two, so I'm not too worried about him.
All that said: Detroit's a better team. Better defensemen in particular. Wings in 5.
Guerin-Crosby-Kunitz vs. Cleary-Zetterberg-Franzen
Crosby had three points at even strength against the Zetterberg line in last year's finals. Zetterberg is kind of fantastic at shutting down opposing centermen, but Crosby is playing better this year than he was last year and his wingers are pretty solid. Detroit, on the other hand has Franzen who is a beast in the playoffs and Cleary who's playing as well as he's played in his career right now.
Edge: I think this is basically a push. Maybe a slight edge to Detroit because of Franzen but it's really close.
First Line B
Fedotenko-Malkin-Satan/Talbot vs. Holmstrom-Datsyuk-Hossa
Datsyuk's struggled scoring this postseason, as has both wingers on this line. However he's still been excellent defensively. Holmstrom though is a liability. If Hossa plays like he did in game four and game five, this matchup is close, but Malkin has been playing real well and Babcock will probably play the slightly less good defense pairing against these guys instead of Crosby.
Edge: Penguins, but it's close and if Datsyuk/Hossa play like their capable of, this is also a push.
Third Line
Kennedy-Staal-Cooke vs. Hudler-Filppula-Samuelsson
This has at times been Detroit's best line in these playoffs. Filppula is playing out of his mind, Samuelsson is playing better than he usually does with fewer turnovers, and Hudler is being his usual self with little ice time. These are easily the two best third line centers in the league. Cooke's a douche, Kennedy has played pretty well from what I've seen, but the Wings' third line has been incredible thus far.
Edge: Detroit
Fourth Line
Talbot/Satan-whichever center is double shifting(right, Burtletoy?)- Adams vs. Abdelkader-Helm-Maltby (Draper for Maltby or Abdelkader if he's healthy, with additional injuries move Helm up a line and add Leino)
Neither of these lines are going to get a ton of ice time. I have a huge mancrush on Darren Helm, Draper's great at defensive zone faceoffs, but I don't want these guys on the ice against the big lines of the Pens. I'm sure Bylsma will try to get that matchup when he has last change. The Pens fourth line basically doesn't concern me.
Edge: Shouldn't matter, Detroit's is a little better but besides Helm and Talbot if he gets elevated to Malkin's line, these people won't get 10 minutes of ice time.
Top Defense Pairing
Scuderi and Gill vs. Lidstrom and Rafalski
Oh God, ouch. It's the second best defenseman of all time and a borderline all star in his own right against a couple solid blue liners, but nothing spectacular.
BIG Edge: Detroit
Second Defense Pairing
Gonchar and Orpik vs. Kronwall and Stuart
This is closer, in my mind. Orpik has played really well I've thought this post season. Gonchar is a great offensive defenseman and almost as good in his own end. Stuart has been playing out of his mind, especially in the two games Lidstrom has missed. Kronwall is doing Kronwall things. Decent number of assists, big hits, getting in the heads of opposing forwards.
Edge: Detroit, but it's closer than I thought originally.
Third Pairing + Spare parts
Eaton and Letang (and Boucher) vs. Ericsson and Lebda
Ericsson is great. Started looking a little shaky sometimes against Kane Toews, but considering he's brand new in the league as of basically three months ago, he's been fantastic. I look forward to his career. Lebda played really really well as the fourth defenseman last night, assisted on both goals. was solid in playing something like 25 minutes. Letang has been pretty good in what I've seen. Eaton I haven't noticed so he's not being totally terrible, and I only seem to hear Boucher's name called on the second power play unit.
Edge: Detroit, though this is my most biased pick.
Goaltending
Fleury vs. Osgood
So Fleury actually reminds me a little bit of a young Osgood. Can steal a game, makes a lot of spectacular saves, but allows some baffling goals sometimes. As I recall from last year's Finals, he has trouble with rebounds, which is bad times against Detroit. But he's been really *really* good in the playoffs. Similarly, Osgood has been absolutely fantastic. Great save percentage, GAA, record, etc.
Edge: This is a push, both goalies are playing really really well.
Pittsburgh Power Plays
Wings penalty killing has been terrible, the Pens power play is terrifying. This is not good.
BIG Edge: Pittsburgh
Detroit Power Plays
Pittsburgh's is surprisingly good, though the stats are inflated a bit I think because of Carolina's ineptness (which was all playoffs long). Detroit's power play is very, very good. This is basically even.
Edge: Push, maybe Detroit if they get on a roll or the numbers are over inflated from Carolina (I doubt it).
Coaching
Babcock vs. Bylsma: Bylsma played for Babcock, so while he's been brilliant, I think we can go with Babcock based on experience at this point.
Edge: Detroit
Miscellaneous keys:
Faceoffs! If Detroit dominates the faceoff dot like they did last year, this won't take long. Granted, I think the last time I checked the stats, Crosby and Malkin were significantly improved from their regular seasons last year. This is something to watch out for.
Discipline/Officiating: If these games become penalty fests, the Pens power play will for sure pick Detroit apart. Detroit's might also, but it's less certain.
Turnovers at the blue lines: Any of these and these two teams will make you pay. Detroit is usually pretty poised so I'm not too worried about them just giving away goals like Carolina and Washington in particular did.
And obviously, Detroit's injury situation: If Lidstrom in particularly can't go, Crosby is going to have a fun series. And that would be bad. Datsyuk being able to go would be a big help in slowing down Malkin. Draper being healthy would help the penalty kill as his ability to cheat and get away with it on faceoffs is invaluable. Ericsson should be fine, definitely by game two, so I'm not too worried about him.
All that said: Detroit's a better team. Better defensemen in particular. Wings in 5.
Monday, May 18, 2009
The Bush Doctrine's Logical Conclusion
Digby has smart readers:
The idea [of the Bush Doctrine] was that the US had the right to attack and invade other countries and change their governments because we thought they, or their proxies, or just a splinter-group of their citizens, might possibly be a threat to our citizens in the future. And if you explore that idea to it's logical conclusion you would have to agree that accepting the Bush Doctrine means you agree that the US can kill large numbers of innocent civilians in these countries, and wound and dislocate many many more. We can do this to people who never did us any harm, because our current leaders want to protect us from what their future leaders might do at some unspecified future date. Just collateral damage, don't you know.
Well, since we've built our logical case to this point, let's follow it to it's ineluctable conclusion: If that's all OK on a government to government level, it must be OK on a personal level too. And there it is: Cheney's torture policy is just the Bush Doctrine for individuals. The (evil) genius of it is that he's found a way to indefinitely extend the ticking time-bomb scenario. If we can invade other countries and kill and maim their citizens because of something their leaders might do, then surely we can do the same to individuals who may not know of any time-bombs currently ticking, but who might know of someone else who might start a bomb ticking at some future date.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Grrrrrr
Hopefully I will start writing again, but this:
is fucking infuriating, for obvious reasons.
Nixon was wrong, moron!
RICE: I just said, the United States was told, we were told, nothing that violates our obligations under the Convention Against Torture. And so by definition, if it was authorized by the president, it did not violate our obligations under the Convention Against Torture.
is fucking infuriating, for obvious reasons.
Nixon was wrong, moron!
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)